WINE TASTER ON 03/09/98 WITH 6 JUDGES AND 4 WINES BASED ON RANKS
Copyright (c) 1994-97 Richard E. Quandt
Number of Judges = 6
Number of Wines = 4
Identification of the Wine: The judges's overall ranking:
Wine A is Gaja Barbaresco 1985 ........ 2nd place
Wine B is Hermitage La Chappelle 1985 ........ 4th place
Wine C is Stag's Leap Cab 1985 ........ 1st place
Wine D is Gruaud Larose 1985 ........ 3rd place
The Judges's Rankings
Judge Wine -> A B C D
John L. 1. 4. 2. 3.
Leslie V. 1. 4. 3. 2.
Ed B. 4. 3. 1. 2.
Orley A. 3. 1. 2. 4.
Frank V. 1. 4. 2. 3.
Richard Q. 3. 4. 1. 2.
Table of Votes Against
Wine -> A B C D
Group Ranking -> 2 4 1 3
Votes Against -> 13 20 11 16
( 6 is the best possible, 24 is the worst)
Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which
ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation):
W = 0.2556
The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation
is rather large, 0.2035. Most analysts would say that unless this
probability is less than 0.1, the judges' preferences are not strongly
We now analyze how each taster's preferences are correlated with the group
preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster's preferences are a
perfect predictor of the group's preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation,
while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group.
Correlation Between the Ranks of
Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others
Name of Person Correlation
John L. 0.8000
Frank V. 0.8000
Richard Q. 0.6325
Leslie V. 0.4000
Orley A. -0.2000
Ed B. -0.2000
The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the
preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation
among the wines, they are separated by -------------------- and are judged to be
1. ........ 1st place Wine C is Stag's Leap Cab 1985
2. ........ 2nd place Wine A is Gaja Barbaresco 1985
3. ........ 3rd place Wine D is Gruaud Larose 1985
4. ........ 4th place Wine B is Hermitage La Chap'85
Comments by Orley Ashenfelter--Tasting held December 1997:
The idea of this tasting was interesting: to pick outstanding wines from
four regions of the world from what is considered a relatively mature vintage.
As was evident from the tasting, this really provides a test of what the
taster likes, rather than any measure of quality. The wines were served
from magnums, with the exception of the 1985 Chateau Gruaud Larose, where
bottles were provided. It was possible to tell the wines apart, despite all being
made in a very similar style, although the Hermitage revealed the character of
somewhat unripe syrah that the wines from this area develop in unripe, but
concentrated years. This wine was, in the end, a love it or hate it deal. As
the results show, I loved it--but most didn't! All of these were fine wines,
but most could not help wonder why the Gaja wine sells for so much more than
the others without any enormous difference in apparent quality. All the wines
were drinking nicely, but all could easily be kept in the cellar for another
5 to to 10 years. As the results indicate, there were, in fact, no significant
differences among the wines from a statistical point of view among the top 3
wines--a view that was shared by most of those present at the tasting.
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