WINETASTER ON 10/02/06 WITH 8 JUDGES AND 5 WINES BASED ON RANKS, IDENT=N Copyright (c) 1995-2006 Richard E. Quandt, V. 1.65

FLIGHT 1: Number of Judges = 8 Number of Wines = 5

Identification of the Wine: The judges' overall ranking:

Wine A is Grace 2002 ........ 4th place Wine B is Cardinale 2002 ........ 3rd place Wine C is Rudd 2002 ........ 5th place Wine D is Heitz 2001 ........ 2nd place Wine E is Poetry 2001 ........ 1st place

The Judges's Rankings

Judge Wine -> A B C D E Ed 5. 3. 4. 2. 1. Bob 5. 1. 4. 2. 3. Mike 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Frank 2. 1. 5. 4. 3. Burt 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. Orley 5. 1. 4. 2. 3. John 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. Dick 1. 5. 3. 4. 2.

Table of Votes Against Wine -> A B C D E

Group Ranking -> 4 3 5 2 1 Votes Against -> 29 23 33 20 15

( 8 is the best possible, 40 is the worst)

Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation):

W = 0.3187

The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation is quite small, 0.0372. Most analysts would say that unless this probability is less than 0.1, the judges' preferences are not strongly related. We now analyze how each taster's preferences are correlated with the group preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster's preferences are a perfect predictor of the group's preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation, while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group. This is measured by the correlation R.

Correlation Between the Ranks of Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others

Name of Person Correlation R Correlation Price Ed 0.9000 -0.9000 John 0.9000 -0.9000 Burt 0.9000 -0.9000 Mike 0.7000 -0.7000 Bob 0.5000 -0.5000 Orley 0.5000 -0.5000 Frank 0.2000 -0.2000 Dick -0.1000 0.1000

The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation among the wines, they are separated by -------------------- and are judged to be significantly different.

1. ........ 1st place Wine E is Poetry 2001 --------------------------------------------------- 2. ........ 2nd place Wine D is Heitz 2001 3. ........ 3rd place Wine B is Cardinale 2002 4. ........ 4th place Wine A is Grace 2002 --------------------------------------------------- 5. ........ 5th place Wine C is Rudd 2002 We now test whether the ranksums AS A WHOLE provide a significant ordering. The Friedman Chi-square value is 10.2000. The probability that this could happen by chance is 0.0372

We now test whether the group ranking of wines is correlated with the prices of the wines. The rank correlation between them is -1.0000. At the 10% level of significance this would have to exceed the critical value of 0.8000 to be significant.

We now undertake a more detailed examination of the pair-wise rank correla- tions that exist between pairs of judges. First, we present a table in which you can find the correlation for any pair of judges, by finding one of the names in the left hand margin and the other name on top of a column. A second table arranges these correlations in descending order and marks which is significantly positive significantly negative, or not significant. This may allow you to find clusters of judges whose rankings were particularly similar or particularly dissimilar. Pairwise Rank Correlations Correlations must exceed in absolute value 1.00 for significance at the 0.05 level and must exceed 0.90 for significance at the 0.1 level Ed Bob Mike Ed 1.000 0.600 0.900 Bob 0.600 1.000 0.300 Mike 0.900 0.300 1.000 Frank -0.100 0.300 -0.500 Burt 0.700 0.100 0.600 Orley 0.600 1.000 0.300 John 0.700 0.100 0.600 Dick -0.300 -0.900 -0.100 Frank Burt Orley Ed -0.100 0.700 0.600 Bob 0.300 0.100 1.000 Mike -0.500 0.600 0.300 Frank 1.000 0.100 0.300 Burt 0.100 1.000 0.100 Orley 0.300 0.100 1.000 John 0.100 1.000 0.100 Dick -0.100 0.300 -0.900 John Dick Ed 0.700 -0.300 Bob 0.100 -0.900 Mike 0.600 -0.100 Frank 0.100 -0.100 Burt 1.000 0.300 Orley 0.100 -0.900 John 1.000 0.300 Dick 0.300 1.000 Pairwise correlations in descending order 1.000 Bob and Orley Significantly positive 1.000 Burt and John Significantly positive 0.900 Ed and Mike Significantly positive 0.700 Ed and Burt Not significant 0.700 Ed and John Not significant 0.600 Ed and Bob Not significant 0.600 Mike and John Not significant 0.600 Ed and Orley Not significant 0.600 Mike and Burt Not significant 0.300 Bob and Frank Not significant 0.300 John and Dick Not significant 0.300 Bob and Mike Not significant 0.300 Frank and Orley Not significant 0.300 Burt and Dick Not significant 0.300 Mike and Orley Not significant 0.100 Frank and John Not significant 0.100 Bob and Burt Not significant 0.100 Bob and John Not significant 0.100 Frank and Burt Not significant 0.100 Burt and Orley Not significant 0.100 Orley and John Not significant -0.100 Ed and Frank Not significant -0.100 Frank and Dick Not significant -0.100 Mike and Dick Not significant -0.300 Ed and Dick Not significant -0.500 Mike and Frank Not significant -0.900 Bob and Dick Significantly negative -0.900 Orley and Dick Significantly negative

COMMENT: All the wines were quite amazing. They had a substantially similar bouquet but did not taste identical by any means. Nevertheless, the tasters claimed that they had difficulty in distinguishing among the wines. On the whole, the Poetry was deemed to be significantly good and the Rudd was thought to be significantly bad. One taster judged the wine that was second worst in the aggregate as being first. The real question was whether the tasters could differentiate among the very expensive wines (ranging from $105 to $159) and the relatively inexpensive Heitz costing only $45. In fact, the Heitz was the second highest ranked wine, which suggests that the higher priced wines are substantially overpriced. The tasters were asked to identify the Heitz in a secret ballot, and only one out of eight tasters succeded in identifying this wine. Every taster's preferences among the wines was negative correlated with the wine prices except for the one contrarian taster who ranked the Grace first. It is worth mentioning that this is a lanmdmark tasting in that it is the 100th tasting since we have started to record the tastings and the statistical results in a systematic way. The only noteworthy observation we can make is that a statistical analysis of the results of the tastings suggests on the basis of the Kendall W-coefficients (or rather, of the p-values corresponding to these coefficients) that we have not increased over time the degree of agreement among the tasters---that is to say, we have not learned from each other and have not adopted over time the tasting standards of other tasters.

Return to previous page