WINETASTER ON 11/15/99 WITH 4 JUDGES AND 7 WINES BASED ON RANKS, IDENT=N
Copyright (c) 1995-99 Richard E. Quandt
FLIGHT 1:
Number of Judges = 4
Number of Wines = 7
Identification of the Wine: The judges' overall ranking:
Wine A is Tirecul de la Graviere Cuvee Madam 1994 tied for 2nd place
Wine B is Tokaji Aszu 6 puttonyos 1972 ........ 4th place
Wine C is Zwischen den Seen Trockenbeerenauslese 1995 ........ 5th place
Wine D is Royal Tokaji Aszu Essencia 1993 ........ 1st place
Wine E is Tokaji Aszu 5 puttonyos 1973 ........ 7th place
Wine F is Tokaji Aszu Essencia 1988 ........ 6th place
Wine G is Tokaji Aszu 5 puttonyos 1988 tied for 2nd place
The Judges's Rankings
Judge Wine -> A B C D E F G
Frank 2. 3. 1. 5. 6. 7. 4.
Orley 7. 1. 6. 2. 5. 4. 3.
John 1. 6. 3. 2. 7. 5. 4.
Dick 3. 5. 7. 1. 6. 4. 2.
Table of Votes Against
Wine -> A B C D E F G
Group Ranking -> 2 4 5 1 7 6 2
Votes Against -> 13 15 17 10 24 20 13
( 4 is the best possible, 28 is the worst)
Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which
ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation):
W = 0.3036
The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation
is rather large, 0.2952. Most analysts would say that unless this
probability is less than 0.1, the judges' preferences are not strongly
related.
We now analyze how each taster's preferences are correlated with the group
preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster's preferences are a
perfect predictor of the group's preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation,
while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group.
This is measured by the correlation R.
Correlation Between the Ranks of
Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others
Name of Person Correlation R
John 0.4685
Dick 0.3706
Frank 0.0714
Orley -0.1429
The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the
preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation
among the wines, they are separated by -------------------- and are judged to be
significantly different.
1. ........ 1st place Wine D is Royal Tokaji Aszu Essencia 1993
2. tied for 2nd place Wine A is Tirecul de la Graviere Cuvee Madam 1994
3. tied for 2nd place Wine G is Tokaji Aszu 5 puttonyos 1988
4. ........ 4th place Wine B is Tokaji Aszu 6 puttonyos 1972
5. ........ 5th place Wine C is Zwischen den Seen Trockenbeer 1995
6. ........ 6th place Wine F is Tokaji Aszu Essencia 1988
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7. ........ 7th place Wine E is Tokaji Aszu 5 puttonyos 1973
We now test whether the ranksums AS A WHOLE provide a significant ordering.
The Friedman Chi-square value is 7.2857. The probability that this could
happen by chance is 0.2952
We now undertake a more detailed examination of the pair-wise rank correla-
tions that exist between pairs of judges. First, we present a table in which you
can find the correlation for any pair of judges, by finding one of the names in the
left hand margin and the other name on top of a column. A second table arranges
these correlations in descending order and marks which is significantly positive
significantly negative, or not significant. This may allow you to find clusters
of judges whose rankings were particularly similar or particularly dissimilar.
Pairwise Rank Correlations
Correlations must exceed in absolute value 0.79 for significance at the 0.05
level and must exceed 0.71 for significance at the 0.1 level
Frank Orley John
Frank 1.000 -0.321 0.500
Orley -0.321 1.000 -0.357
John 0.500 -0.357 1.000
Dick -0.250 0.357 0.500
Dick
Frank -0.250
Orley 0.357
John 0.500
Dick 1.000
Pairwise correlations in descending order
0.500 Frank and John Not significant
0.500 John and Dick Not significant
0.357 Orley and Dick Not significant
-0.250 Frank and Dick Not significant
-0.321 Frank and Orley Not significant
-0.357 Orley and John Not significant
COMMENT:
Fascinating opportunity to taste top-flight Hungarian sweet wines
of which none was oxidized and they showed varying degrees of sweetness.
It was generally agreed that the two ringers, the Monbazillac and the
Austrian Trockenbeerenauslese, were recognizably different. One taster
ranked them first and second, another sixth and seventh, showing that
there is a strong disagreement in preferences. The 1993 Essencia from
the Royal Tokai Wine Company represented the greatest consensus in the
tasting, and was widely agreed to be outstanding. It had wonderful
sugar/acid balance, and reminded all the tasters of the essence of apri-
cots. The weakest wine, 1973 5 puttonyos, was quite dark and seemed to
have lost some of its sweetness (drink up!). The Trockenbeerenauslese
was outstanding, but for some tasters, too young, but still very drink-
able today. Some thought it was perfect today. There are surprisingly few
tastings of sweet wines, and this tasting showed there should be more.
High quality sweet wines have a balance of acidity and sugar that cannot
be equaled by any other wine; sadly, sweet wines without an acid balance
have given the whole category a bad reputation.
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