WINETASTER ON 12/29/99 WITH  7 JUDGES AND  5 WINES BASED ON RANKS,  IDENT=N   
                       Copyright (c) 1995-99 Richard E. Quandt                  
                                                                                






                                     FLIGHT 1:
                              Number of Judges =  7
                              Number of Wines  =  5


  Identification of the Wine:                   The judges' overall ranking:


  Wine A is J Phelbs,Cabernet,Napa 97                     ........  1st place
  Wine B is Sterling Vineyards,Cabernet,Napa 97            ........  2nd place
  Wine C is R Mondavi,Cabernet,Coastal 97                 ........  3rd place
  Wine D is Undurraga Reserva,Maipo/Chile 96              ........  4th place
  Wine E is R Mondavi,Cabernet, Napa 96                   ........  5th place


                        The Judges's Rankings


  Judge       Wine ->   A   B   C   D   E                                       
                                                                                
  Lisa                  1.  2.  5.  3.  4.                                      
  Nahomi                2.  1.  4.  3.  5.                                      
  Gaby                  1.  3.  4.  2.  5.                                      
  Keith                 2.  1.  4.  3.  5.                                      
  Miwa                  2.  3.  1.  4.  5.                                      
  Alexander             1.  4.  2.  5.  3.                                      
  Karl                  1.  2.  3.  4.  5.                                      


                        Table of Votes Against                                  
                                                                                
              Wine ->   A   B   C   D   E                                       


     Group Ranking ->   1   2   3   4   5
     Votes Against ->  10  16  23  24  32


     ( 7 is the best possible,  35 is the worst)




 Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which
 ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation):


     W = 0.5714




 The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation
 is quite small, 0.0030. Most analysts would say that unless this
 probability is less than 0.1, the judges' preferences are not strongly
 related.
 We now analyze how each taster's preferences are correlated with the group
 preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster's preferences are a
 perfect predictor of the group's preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation,
 while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group.
 This is measured by the correlation R.


       Correlation Between the Ranks of
 Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others


  Name of Person      Correlation R                                             
                                                                                
  Karl                  0.9747                                                  
  Nahomi                0.8000                                                  
  Keith                 0.8000                                                  
  Gaby                  0.7000                                                  
  Lisa                  0.7000                                                  
  Miwa                  0.4000                                                  
  Alexander             0.2000                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                




The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the
preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation
among the wines, they are separated by -------------------- and are judged to be
significantly different.


  1.   ........  1st place    Wine A is J Phelbs,Cabernet,Napa 97         
---------------------------------------------------
  2.   ........  2nd place    Wine B is Sterling Vineyards,Cabernet,Napa 9
  3.   ........  3rd place    Wine C is R Mondavi,Cabernet,Coastal 97     
  4.   ........  4th place    Wine D is Undurraga Reserva,Maipo/Chile 96  
---------------------------------------------------
  5.   ........  5th place    Wine E is R Mondavi,Cabernet, Napa 96       

   We now test whether the ranksums AS A WHOLE provide a significant ordering.
 The Friedman Chi-square value is 16.0000. The probability that this could
 happen by chance is 0.0030

   We now undertake a more detailed examination of the pair-wise rank correla-
tions that exist between pairs of judges. First, we present a table in which you
can find the correlation for any pair of judges, by finding one of the names in the
left hand margin and the other name on top of a column. A second table arranges
these correlations in descending order and marks which is significantly positive
significantly negative, or not significant. This may allow you to find clusters
of judges whose rankings were particularly similar or particularly dissimilar.
                                                                                
                           Pairwise Rank Correlations                           
                                                                                
Correlations must exceed in absolute value  1.00 for significance at the 0.05   
level and must exceed  0.90 for significance at the 0.1 level                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Lisa             Nahomi           Gaby                        
                                                                                
Lisa              1.000            0.800            0.800                       
Nahomi            0.800            1.000            0.700                       
Gaby              0.800            0.700            1.000                       
Keith             0.800            1.000            0.700                       
Miwa              0.000            0.300            0.300                       
Alexander         0.100           -0.100            0.100                       
Karl              0.700            0.800            0.700                       
                                                                                
                  Keith            Miwa             Alexander                   
                                                                                
Lisa              0.800            0.000            0.100                       
Nahomi            1.000            0.300           -0.100                       
Gaby              0.700            0.300            0.100                       
Keith             1.000            0.300           -0.100                       
Miwa              0.300            1.000            0.600                       
Alexander        -0.100            0.600            1.000                       
Karl              0.800            0.700            0.500                       
                                                                                
                  Karl                                                          
                                                                                
Lisa              0.700                                                         
Nahomi            0.800                                                         
Gaby              0.700                                                         
Keith             0.800                                                         
Miwa              0.700                                                         
Alexander         0.500                                                         
Karl              1.000                                                         
                                                                                
                     Pairwise correlations in descending order                  
                                                                                
    1.000   Nahomi           and Keith              Significantly positive      
    0.800   Lisa             and Gaby               Not significant             
    0.800   Lisa             and Nahomi             Not significant             
    0.800   Nahomi           and Karl               Not significant             
    0.800   Keith            and Karl               Not significant             
    0.800   Lisa             and Keith              Not significant             
    0.700   Gaby             and Karl               Not significant             
    0.700   Miwa             and Karl               Not significant             
    0.700   Nahomi           and Gaby               Not significant             
    0.700   Gaby             and Keith              Not significant             
    0.700   Lisa             and Karl               Not significant             
    0.600   Miwa             and Alexander          Not significant             
    0.500   Alexander        and Karl               Not significant             
    0.300   Nahomi           and Miwa               Not significant             
    0.300   Keith            and Miwa               Not significant             
    0.300   Gaby             and Miwa               Not significant             
    0.100   Lisa             and Alexander          Not significant             
    0.100   Gaby             and Alexander          Not significant             
    0.000   Lisa             and Miwa               Not significant             
   -0.100   Nahomi           and Alexander          Not significant             
   -0.100   Keith            and Alexander          Not significant             



 COMMENT:

Most of the judges were not expierenced in drinking wine let alone in doing wine tastings. Nevertheless everyone agrees that the Joseph Phelbs is an outstanding wine. The included supermarket-wine from Chile was considered to be the worst. The Mondavi Napa Cabernet was corked and should have been excluded from the tasting. Interesting is also a simple regression between ranking and price for the correlation seems to be almost perfect. The retailer prices were:

                      Joseph Phelbs:      $31.39                                            
                      Sterling Vineyards: $19.99                                                
                      Mondavi Coastal:    $ 8.99                                                   
                      Undurraga Reserva:  $ 7.99                                                 
                      Mondavi Napa Valley:$23.29                                              
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