Copyright (c) 1994-97 Richard E. Quandt                 
                                     FLIGHT 1:
                              Number of Judges =  6
                              Number of Wines  =  4
  Identification of the Wine:         The judges''s overall ranking:
  Wine A is Jos. Phelps Cab.1977            ........  1st place
  Wine B is Jos. Phelps Cab.1979            ........  3rd place
  Wine C is Jos. Phelps Cab.1978            ........  2nd place
  Wine D is Jos. Phelps Cab.1976            ........  4th place
                        The Judges'' Rankings
  Judge       Wine ->   A   B   C   D                                           
  Grant S.              1.  3.  4.  2.                                          
  Frank V.              1.  4.  3.  2.                                          
  Orley A.              3.  1.  2.  4.                                          
  John L.               1.  2.  3.  4.                                          
  Burt M.               3.  4.  1.  2.                                          
  Richard Q.            2.  3.  1.  4.                                          
                        Table of Votes Against                                  
              Wine ->   A   B   C   D                                           
     Group Ranking ->   1   3   2   4
     Votes Against ->  11  17  14  18
     ( 6 is the best possible,  24 is the worst)
 Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which
 ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation:
     W = 0.1667
 The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation
 is rather large, 0.3916. Most analysist would say that unless this
 probability is less than 0.1, the judges preferences are not strongly related.
 We now analyze how each tasters'' preferences are correlated with the group
 preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster''s preferences are a
 perfect predictor of the group''s preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation,
 while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group.
       Correlation Between the Ranks of
 Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others
  Name of Person      Correlation                                               
  Orley A.              0.4000                                                  
  Burt M.               0.3162                                                  
  Grant S.              0.1054                                                  
  John L.              -0.4000                                                  
  Frank V.             -0.4000                                                  
  Richard Q.           -0.7379                                                  
 The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the
 preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation
 among the wines, they are separated by ------------------- and are judged to be 
 significantly different.
  1.   ........  1st place    Wine A is Jos. Phelps Cab.1977   
  2.   ........  2nd place    Wine C is Jos. Phelps Cab.1978   
  3.   ........  3rd place    Wine B is Jos. Phelps Cab.1979   
  4.   ........  4th place    Wine D is Jos. Phelps Cab.1976   
Comments by Orley Ashenfelter--tasting took place February 9, 1998:             
This was a tasting of 4 adjacent vintages of California cabernet sauvignon      
from a very reliable California producer in the 1970s.  All the wines were      
served in magnums blind.  These vintages in California (1976-79) have           
very different reputations for quality.  The goal was to see whether the        
vintages are really different.  The answer, felt strongly by all present,       
is no!  The wines were outstanding drinking and of remarkable consistency.      
However, these wines are ready to drink now.  I noticed after the tastng that   
my own ranks are perfectly predicted by the age of the wine:  I tended to like  
the slightly younger (and fresher) wines, somewhat to my own surprise!  Drink   
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